battling their body clocks:
lethargic performances for college teams playing at all hours
By Jordan Cope
Former Towson University standout linebacker Bryton Barr didn’t travel much in his time in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, he played just one game outside of the Eastern Time Zone in his two seasons as a Tiger.
Since transferring to the University of Massachusetts, however, that all changed for Barr. In his first season with the Minutemen, he played in three games in different time zones -- against Tennessee, Mississippi State and BYU. And his body clock took notice.
“At Mississippi State we had to wake up really early, like 5:45 a.m.,” Barr said. “So my pre-game meal was all breakfast foods which I’m not used to. That was honestly the most tired I’ve ever been for a college football game.”
It has long been assumed that when teams like UMass travel to different time zones to play -- especially for early or late kickoffs that feel like they are taking place at 9 a.m. or 10 p.m. -- they are at a competitive disadvantage. An analysis of such games in recent years proves the assumption to be true.
Since transferring to the University of Massachusetts, however, that all changed for Barr. In his first season with the Minutemen, he played in three games in different time zones -- against Tennessee, Mississippi State and BYU. And his body clock took notice.
“At Mississippi State we had to wake up really early, like 5:45 a.m.,” Barr said. “So my pre-game meal was all breakfast foods which I’m not used to. That was honestly the most tired I’ve ever been for a college football game.”
It has long been assumed that when teams like UMass travel to different time zones to play -- especially for early or late kickoffs that feel like they are taking place at 9 a.m. or 10 p.m. -- they are at a competitive disadvantage. An analysis of such games in recent years proves the assumption to be true.
Of the 160 games analyzed between 2010 and 2017, visitors battling their biological clocks came away with 24 just victories.
“Clearly the home team has an advantage,” said ESPN college football writer Adam Rittenberg. “It’s always on the radar of the visiting team’s head coach when to arrive and when to prepare.”
In 2015, Stanford kicked off its 12-2 campaign by visiting Northwestern for an 11 a.m. Central game that felt like 9 a.m. to the West Coast players. The result: a 16-6 Cardinal loss, one of only two on the season. Stanford came out unusually lethargic. Christian McCaffrey was unusually ineffective. The Cardinal couldn't get its potent passing game going. And after the game, coach David Shaw pointed to the early start as a likely factor in the team's struggle.
College football teams score an average of 30 points a game -- and Stanford rarely had difficulty reaching the end zone that season. Northwestern's defense was elite, but still the six points scored was anomalous.
“Clearly the home team has an advantage,” said ESPN college football writer Adam Rittenberg. “It’s always on the radar of the visiting team’s head coach when to arrive and when to prepare.”
In 2015, Stanford kicked off its 12-2 campaign by visiting Northwestern for an 11 a.m. Central game that felt like 9 a.m. to the West Coast players. The result: a 16-6 Cardinal loss, one of only two on the season. Stanford came out unusually lethargic. Christian McCaffrey was unusually ineffective. The Cardinal couldn't get its potent passing game going. And after the game, coach David Shaw pointed to the early start as a likely factor in the team's struggle.
College football teams score an average of 30 points a game -- and Stanford rarely had difficulty reaching the end zone that season. Northwestern's defense was elite, but still the six points scored was anomalous.
The Pac-12 finished last in victories when playing on a different biological clock of all the power five schools. Between 2010-2017, Pac-12 visitors collected just 11 total wins. The conference that finished first was the Big Ten with 74.
Although Stanford traveled to take on Northwestern in 2015, it is rare to see West Coast teams traveling at all. In fact, between 2010 and 2017, just 17 of these games were played on the West Coast.
Some of those contests included Ohio State and Cal, Wake Forest and Stanford, Duke and Stanford, Virginia and USC and Rutgers and Fresno State.
Some of those contests included Ohio State and Cal, Wake Forest and Stanford, Duke and Stanford, Virginia and USC and Rutgers and Fresno State.
Although the struggles of playing on a different biological clock are evident, Rittenberg is unsure of what the future holds for teams traveling far away.
“It’s tough to say,” he said. “It’s a difficult challenge, but it can be done. It really depends on the year, the team and how far out the team is going."
“It’s tough to say,” he said. “It’s a difficult challenge, but it can be done. It really depends on the year, the team and how far out the team is going."
The frozen tundra effect:
dome, warm-weather NFL Teams struggle in frigid temperatures
By Amy Phillips
Darius Victor knows what it's like to play football in all types of weather. The Hyattsville, Maryland, native played college football at Towson University. He was invited to the New Orleans Saints rookie camp and trained with the New York Jets. He's now on the Arizona Cardinals practice squad. Victor, known to most as Vito, does his best to ignore the temperature during practices and games and focus on what he can control.
“I have tried my hardest in every single game despite where it is played at,” Vito said. “My body does a really good job in adjusting to my surroundings.”
“I have tried my hardest in every single game despite where it is played at,” Vito said. “My body does a really good job in adjusting to my surroundings.”
During his time at Towson, Vito was an intern for the Towson Sports Network under the direction of Benjamin Rosenbaum and Brandon Sacks. Sacks, a self-described fan of Vito’s personality and performance, said he believed traveling and harsh weather conditions did not seem to negatively impact Vito’s game.
“You saw him play in Towson, which by the end of the season gets to be 20-30 degrees, and at the beginning of the season it’s 80,” Sacks said. “He really gets to experience that full range of temperatures throughout a collegiate season, not to mention travelling up north to potentially Albany and New Hampshire, or down south to Elon. Whether he was on the road or here, he looked like he was the same bruising back regardless.”
But sometimes, weather is hard to ignore. The Arizona heat can be tough on Vito's body. Back east, the cold weather makes it hard for his muscles to get warm. How does cold weather, in particular, affect the performance of NFL teams who are used to playing in domes or in warm weather at home? That was the question I researched with data from 1997-2017.
Results show that the home teams who play in the coldest temperatures (Green Bay, Chicago and Buffalo) won when hosting dome and warm-weather teams two-thirds of the time when the weather was 40 degree or below. Put another way, these three home teams won 46 out of the 70 games analyzed.
“You saw him play in Towson, which by the end of the season gets to be 20-30 degrees, and at the beginning of the season it’s 80,” Sacks said. “He really gets to experience that full range of temperatures throughout a collegiate season, not to mention travelling up north to potentially Albany and New Hampshire, or down south to Elon. Whether he was on the road or here, he looked like he was the same bruising back regardless.”
But sometimes, weather is hard to ignore. The Arizona heat can be tough on Vito's body. Back east, the cold weather makes it hard for his muscles to get warm. How does cold weather, in particular, affect the performance of NFL teams who are used to playing in domes or in warm weather at home? That was the question I researched with data from 1997-2017.
Results show that the home teams who play in the coldest temperatures (Green Bay, Chicago and Buffalo) won when hosting dome and warm-weather teams two-thirds of the time when the weather was 40 degree or below. Put another way, these three home teams won 46 out of the 70 games analyzed.
map of all dome, warm-weathered, and cold-weathered teams
In this map, the sun symbols represent the warm-weathered teams, the cloud/snow symbols represent the cold-weathered teams, and the red dots represent the dome teams.
Out of the three cold-weather home teams analyzed, Green Bay was most effective at defending its home tundra against warm-weather teams. From 1997-2017 in games under 40 degrees, the Packers won 25 out of 34 games. The teams listed below had the most success at Green Bay (numbers by their names indicate number of wins against the Packers on the road).
Minnesota leads the way in beating the packers the most at green bay in under 40 degrees from 1997-2017
There was a significant increase in dome and warm-weathered team wins when the temperature was between 35-40 degrees, as opposed to the lower temperatures. Thirteen of 24 games that were 35-40 degrees were won by the dome or warm-weathered teams, or 54 percent. When looking at the data as a whole with every temperature below 40 degrees included, the dome and warm-weathered team wins only represent 34 percent.
35-40 DEGREE GAMES PROVE TO BE MUCH EASIER FOR DOME AND WARM-WEATHERED TEAMS TO WIN
More specifically, I wanted to see if the visiting team’s score in cold-weather games was below its normal output. Four of the teams had their individual game score beat their average per game score, the Jaguars having the biggest difference.
COMPARING VISITING TEAM SCORES TO THEIR AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME
After I compared the visiting teams’ scores, I wanted to see how the home teams’ scores played out as well. This bar graph shows the difference between a random home game score and the team’s average points per game during that particular season. The Bears had the largest difference.
COMPARING HOME TEAM SCORES TO THEIR AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME
Rosenbaum and Sacks are in agreement that NFL players should handle themselves like professionals no matter what the weather conditions are.
“At the end of the day, they’re professionals and they need to learn how to do it regardless of the temperature, wind, or precipitation," Sack said. “If there are times through the week where it’s snowing or raining, coaches do not always practice indoors because they want their guys to get used to playing in those harsh conditions. You have to be ready to play in whatever weather is given.”
When asked about domes, Sacks added: “Dome teams don’t necessarily have a disadvantage because they have outside facilities where the players get to practice in the elements. I think it’s a distinct advantage when they play at home where they have a climate-controlled environment, a perfect 72 degrees, no humidity and perfect lighting. They have that advantage because they are used to playing with no wind. Down in Miami where it’s close to sea level, the ball may not fly as high as it will in Denver, a mile in the sky. I don’t think they have a disadvantage when they go into those outdoor games, they just have to prepare differently.”
Vito said the Cardinals typically get to whatever stadium they are playing at one or two days before the game, giving players time to adjust.
“On the mental aspect, I like playing away from home to upset the opponents’ fans,” Vito said.
“At the end of the day, they’re professionals and they need to learn how to do it regardless of the temperature, wind, or precipitation," Sack said. “If there are times through the week where it’s snowing or raining, coaches do not always practice indoors because they want their guys to get used to playing in those harsh conditions. You have to be ready to play in whatever weather is given.”
When asked about domes, Sacks added: “Dome teams don’t necessarily have a disadvantage because they have outside facilities where the players get to practice in the elements. I think it’s a distinct advantage when they play at home where they have a climate-controlled environment, a perfect 72 degrees, no humidity and perfect lighting. They have that advantage because they are used to playing with no wind. Down in Miami where it’s close to sea level, the ball may not fly as high as it will in Denver, a mile in the sky. I don’t think they have a disadvantage when they go into those outdoor games, they just have to prepare differently.”
Vito said the Cardinals typically get to whatever stadium they are playing at one or two days before the game, giving players time to adjust.
“On the mental aspect, I like playing away from home to upset the opponents’ fans,” Vito said.
Playing on a short week:
Teams that travel for thursday night nfl games tend to do just fine
By Mike Mills
Over the past five years, the NFL has faced heavy scrutiny over player safety issues. At the same time, disgruntled fans and players grumble that the game has become soft, claiming that the NFL shows favoritism towards the offensive side of the ball.
As Pittsburgh Steelers safety Mike Mitchell recently said: “I signed up to play full-speed contact football and we're not doing that. I feel like I got to ask a guy 'Hey, are you ready for me to hit you right now before I hit you?' And that's crazy.”
Thursday Night Football games have been at the epicenter of this discussion. In the seasons prior to 2012, Thursday night games were played sparingly. However, the 2012 season marked the first year when there was at least one Thursday Night Football game every week of the season.
This change has frustrated players and opened up the NFL to even more criticism. In a column in The Players’ Tribune, Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman called Thursday Night Football a “poopfest.” Sherman called out the NFL on the hypocrisy of emphasizing player safety but still having teams play on short rest every week.
“The NFL preaches player safety," Sherman wrote. “The league says it wants to do everything in its power to protect its players. But when it comes down to it, it’s not the players that the NFL protects."
Players aren’t the only ones who are frustrated with Thursday Night Football. Many fans complain about poor play on the field and the lack of preparation time leading up to a Thursday night game. Kyle Casey, a writer for the Baltimore Ravens site Russell Street Report, agrees that Thursday Night Football lacks excitement.
“Unless the Ravens are playing, I don’t really look forward to Thursday night games,” Casey said. “Because I love football, I’ll check out the score of the game. But I can’t tell you the last time I watched every play of a Thursday Night Football game that didn’t have the Ravens in it.”
Many have questioned the fairness of Thursday Night Football, claiming that the away team faces many more obstacles when playing on short rest. According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, the away team has virtually no preparation time given the travel demands.
An analysis of Thursday night games dating back to the 2010-11 NFL season, however, shows that the road team doesn't fare all that poorly. The home team won 60 percent of the time. However, this isn’t necessarily due to preparation time. It could be as simple as this: The historically good franchises are beating up on the bad teams in front of a national audience, and fans are taking notice.
As Pittsburgh Steelers safety Mike Mitchell recently said: “I signed up to play full-speed contact football and we're not doing that. I feel like I got to ask a guy 'Hey, are you ready for me to hit you right now before I hit you?' And that's crazy.”
Thursday Night Football games have been at the epicenter of this discussion. In the seasons prior to 2012, Thursday night games were played sparingly. However, the 2012 season marked the first year when there was at least one Thursday Night Football game every week of the season.
This change has frustrated players and opened up the NFL to even more criticism. In a column in The Players’ Tribune, Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman called Thursday Night Football a “poopfest.” Sherman called out the NFL on the hypocrisy of emphasizing player safety but still having teams play on short rest every week.
“The NFL preaches player safety," Sherman wrote. “The league says it wants to do everything in its power to protect its players. But when it comes down to it, it’s not the players that the NFL protects."
Players aren’t the only ones who are frustrated with Thursday Night Football. Many fans complain about poor play on the field and the lack of preparation time leading up to a Thursday night game. Kyle Casey, a writer for the Baltimore Ravens site Russell Street Report, agrees that Thursday Night Football lacks excitement.
“Unless the Ravens are playing, I don’t really look forward to Thursday night games,” Casey said. “Because I love football, I’ll check out the score of the game. But I can’t tell you the last time I watched every play of a Thursday Night Football game that didn’t have the Ravens in it.”
Many have questioned the fairness of Thursday Night Football, claiming that the away team faces many more obstacles when playing on short rest. According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, the away team has virtually no preparation time given the travel demands.
An analysis of Thursday night games dating back to the 2010-11 NFL season, however, shows that the road team doesn't fare all that poorly. The home team won 60 percent of the time. However, this isn’t necessarily due to preparation time. It could be as simple as this: The historically good franchises are beating up on the bad teams in front of a national audience, and fans are taking notice.
These statistics aren’t groundbreaking. The good teams beat the bad teams on a weekly basis, and fans rarely complain about it. However, because the NFL has given Thursday Night Football its own primetime television platform, fans are recognizing the poor matchups and complaining about them.
“Every team has to play on Thursday night, which puts oodles of bad teams on national TV far too regularly," La Canfora said. “Many of those teams aren't competitive on a full week, let alone a short one, and for the road team in particular there is almost no prep time. The quality of play in these games is often lacking.”
So how does a road team go into an opponent’s stadium and win with the odds often stacked against them? The winning road formula isn’t that complex, and it remains the same regardless of whether a team is playing on short rest or not. The key is to run the ball successfully. When a team runs the ball successfully they control the clock, quiet the crowd and tire out the defense. Since the 2010 season, away teams that had a leading rusher with 100 yards or more won 69 percent of the time.
“Every team has to play on Thursday night, which puts oodles of bad teams on national TV far too regularly," La Canfora said. “Many of those teams aren't competitive on a full week, let alone a short one, and for the road team in particular there is almost no prep time. The quality of play in these games is often lacking.”
So how does a road team go into an opponent’s stadium and win with the odds often stacked against them? The winning road formula isn’t that complex, and it remains the same regardless of whether a team is playing on short rest or not. The key is to run the ball successfully. When a team runs the ball successfully they control the clock, quiet the crowd and tire out the defense. Since the 2010 season, away teams that had a leading rusher with 100 yards or more won 69 percent of the time.
Darius Victor, a former Towson University running back and current member of the Arizona Cardinals practice squad, knows about running the ball successfully. Victor also knows how demanding football can be on the human body and has had plenty of experience playing on short rest. Many have blamed playing on short rest for poor performances on Thursday Night Football, but that claim may not hold up according to Victor.
“Personally, I feel tired prior to the start of playing [on a short week],” Victor said. “Once the playing starts, I’m up and ready to go. Afterwards, I may be more tired than usual though.”
If what Victor is saying holds true for all NFL players, playing on short rest really isn’t that much of an issue. Players may start a little slow, but they loosen up as the game progresses. In fact, the average point differential between home and away teams on Thursday Night Football games over the past seven seasons is less than a touchdown.
“Personally, I feel tired prior to the start of playing [on a short week],” Victor said. “Once the playing starts, I’m up and ready to go. Afterwards, I may be more tired than usual though.”
If what Victor is saying holds true for all NFL players, playing on short rest really isn’t that much of an issue. Players may start a little slow, but they loosen up as the game progresses. In fact, the average point differential between home and away teams on Thursday Night Football games over the past seven seasons is less than a touchdown.
The product the NFL puts out on Thursdays isn’t actually poor, and the home team doesn’t actually have an insurmountable advantage. Thursday Night Football is just another game. Every team is forced to play on Thursday at least once, so every now and then fans are going to have to watch a bad team get their butt kicked on national television.
Players may not be thrilled about playing on short rest, but for now Thursday Night Football is here to stay. Jason La Canfora doesn’t foresee Thursday Night Football going anywhere soon.
“I believe it may get cut back to 10 Thursday games -- and perhaps eventually the games are primarily streamed online - but I don't see it going away entirely. There’s too much money at stake,” La Canfora said. “Almost $800 million from broadcast rights and if that money goes away the cap lowers and so do player salaries. As much as players don't like it, it has been good from a money perspective for the league.”
Players may not be thrilled about playing on short rest, but for now Thursday Night Football is here to stay. Jason La Canfora doesn’t foresee Thursday Night Football going anywhere soon.
“I believe it may get cut back to 10 Thursday games -- and perhaps eventually the games are primarily streamed online - but I don't see it going away entirely. There’s too much money at stake,” La Canfora said. “Almost $800 million from broadcast rights and if that money goes away the cap lowers and so do player salaries. As much as players don't like it, it has been good from a money perspective for the league.”
go east, young men:
West Coast NFL Teams travel more but do not win less
By Nick Ferrara
Any NFL executive, coach or player can explain the hardships of traveling across the country regularly for games. Sure, there are charter flights and fancy hotel rooms, but being away from home and adjusting your body clock can be difficult. How does that mileage traveled affect teams' performance?
Darius Victor, who is on the Arizona Cardinals practice squad, has also spent time with the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. Prior to signing with an NFL team for the first time this past offseason, Victor rarely had to experience traveling long distances while playing his college games for Towson University.
“We usually get there a day or two before the actual game,” Victor said. “So I usually have some time to adjust to the travel.”
And like you might expect any professional athlete to say, Victor was usually more focused on getting a win rather than worrying about where he was playing that particular week.
“I could never tell because I try my hardest every game despite where it’s being played,” Victor said. “On the mental aspect, I like playing away from home to upset the opponent’s fans.”
Maybe it’s just the tough-guy mindset that football players need to have on a weekly basis, but could it be possible that an NFL team traveling long distances over the course of a 17-week season just doesn’t have that much of an impact on performance?
Through a comparison of five NFL teams from each coast, results show that traveling long distances throughout the season usually doesn’t affect a team’s performance as much as someone might expect.
John Eisenberg has been the columnist for the Baltimore Ravens website since 2012 and used to travel with the team during away games.
“There isn’t a big difference for the most part,” Eisenberg said. “The only time I notice a change in their routine is when they’re going to the West Coast and they have to change up their practice schedule to try to get their body clocks adjusted before they leave.”
The Seattle Seahawks are a team that has to deal with travel more than most teams because of their location. In 2016 the Seahawks traveled 15,114 miles and won five of their away games while the Washington Redskins traveled a combined 4,124 miles and only won three out of their eight matchups.
“Historically, the Seahawks have traveled the most because they’re in the Northwest,” Eisenberg said. “I think they [Seahawks] probably paid a price for that when they didn’t have a great team, but once they did have a good team, the impact of the travel time seemed to lessen.”
The best way to grasp this is seeing exactly where the Seahawks had to play their games in 2016.
“There isn’t a big difference for the most part,” Eisenberg said. “The only time I notice a change in their routine is when they’re going to the West Coast and they have to change up their practice schedule to try to get their body clocks adjusted before they leave.”
The Seattle Seahawks are a team that has to deal with travel more than most teams because of their location. In 2016 the Seahawks traveled 15,114 miles and won five of their away games while the Washington Redskins traveled a combined 4,124 miles and only won three out of their eight matchups.
“Historically, the Seahawks have traveled the most because they’re in the Northwest,” Eisenberg said. “I think they [Seahawks] probably paid a price for that when they didn’t have a great team, but once they did have a good team, the impact of the travel time seemed to lessen.”
The best way to grasp this is seeing exactly where the Seahawks had to play their games in 2016.
Yes, there are a variety of factors that could play into how a team performs because of travel, but over the course of a three-year period, the five teams studied from the west coast traveled much more than five teams on the east coast, yet teams on the west coast won more combined games than teams from the east.
Although the amount of miles traveled does not directly affect how a team performs, away teams generally did not perform as well as the home team. Of the 10 teams studied during away games, the combined overall record was 99-139-2 in favor of the home team. Away teams were also outscored by 588 points over this span.
“I don’t know that the traveling time per se impacts their schedule or preparation.” Eisenberg said. “I think crowd noise and atmosphere has more to do with home field advantage than time spent traveling,”
Although the amount of miles traveled does not directly affect how a team performs, away teams generally did not perform as well as the home team. Of the 10 teams studied during away games, the combined overall record was 99-139-2 in favor of the home team. Away teams were also outscored by 588 points over this span.
“I don’t know that the traveling time per se impacts their schedule or preparation.” Eisenberg said. “I think crowd noise and atmosphere has more to do with home field advantage than time spent traveling,”
Traveling will always play a role in professional sports, but maybe not to the extent that some people might think. When analyzing this type of data, it is important to note that sometimes a team just doesn’t win because they simply are not good.
The Jacksonville Jaguars won only two away games over the span of three years while the New England Patriots won 18, which makes a lot of sense considering the Patriots won a Super Bowl over that span and the Jaguars failed to reach a .500 record.
“I guess what I’m saying is that traveling can be an excuse, but if you’re really good, you shouldn’t let it affect you,” Eisenberg said.
The Jacksonville Jaguars won only two away games over the span of three years while the New England Patriots won 18, which makes a lot of sense considering the Patriots won a Super Bowl over that span and the Jaguars failed to reach a .500 record.
“I guess what I’m saying is that traveling can be an excuse, but if you’re really good, you shouldn’t let it affect you,” Eisenberg said.
give them a breaK:
two middling NBA teams playing back-to-back games struggle as expected
By Jarvis Royall
The NBA has a dilemma. It has 82 regular-season games to schedule over seven months. That means some back-to-back games -- especially when a team is on the road. But NBA players hate these games, and because coaches increasingly rest their stars in back-to-back games, home fans wanting to see the best players hate them, too.
A writer who goes by the pseudonym “Cranjis McBasketball”, who does advanced analytics on the Los Angeles Lakers, has missed out on seeing his favorite player numerous times.
“As someone who doesn’t live close to my favorite team and has had multiple times where I’ve seen the Lakers play a local team but my favorite player(s) not play, it can be really frustrating,” McBasketball said.
Playing two games in two nights is disadvantageous for teams. McBasketball said there is about a 3 to 4 percent increase in win odds for a team having one day of rest rather than none. McBasketball acknowledges that there are other important variables such as quality of the team and opponent, but he attributes a major part to fatigue and travel -- including where games are played and distance traveled. He has concluded that back-to-back games teams play at home are less problematic than two games on the road in as many nights.
For teams on the coasts having to travel a great distance for many games, back-to-backs can be especially problematic. I analyzed two such teams -- the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami heat -- over the past three seasons. It's worth noting that these teams were middling at best -- with the Lakers being the worse of the two teams over this time frame.
McBasketball said bad teams can still play worse than normal in back-to-back games. He figures that the only difference in a bad team and a good team’s response to a back to back is the lack of luxury the bad team has in being able to rest players. The Golden State Warriors have seen much more success in the past three seasons than the Philadelphia 76ers. It is rather obvious that the Warriors have had more leisure to rest players than the 76ers have had.
A writer who goes by the pseudonym “Cranjis McBasketball”, who does advanced analytics on the Los Angeles Lakers, has missed out on seeing his favorite player numerous times.
“As someone who doesn’t live close to my favorite team and has had multiple times where I’ve seen the Lakers play a local team but my favorite player(s) not play, it can be really frustrating,” McBasketball said.
Playing two games in two nights is disadvantageous for teams. McBasketball said there is about a 3 to 4 percent increase in win odds for a team having one day of rest rather than none. McBasketball acknowledges that there are other important variables such as quality of the team and opponent, but he attributes a major part to fatigue and travel -- including where games are played and distance traveled. He has concluded that back-to-back games teams play at home are less problematic than two games on the road in as many nights.
For teams on the coasts having to travel a great distance for many games, back-to-backs can be especially problematic. I analyzed two such teams -- the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami heat -- over the past three seasons. It's worth noting that these teams were middling at best -- with the Lakers being the worse of the two teams over this time frame.
McBasketball said bad teams can still play worse than normal in back-to-back games. He figures that the only difference in a bad team and a good team’s response to a back to back is the lack of luxury the bad team has in being able to rest players. The Golden State Warriors have seen much more success in the past three seasons than the Philadelphia 76ers. It is rather obvious that the Warriors have had more leisure to rest players than the 76ers have had.
Coach Nick, a basketball journalist, poses a simple solution to back to backs: Make the NBA calendar longer, which the NBA did this year by starting on October 17. There are still back to backs, but almost no three games in four nights, which is a start, he said.
McBasketball poses a similar solution, suggesting that the league could lengthen the schedule. He also offers the idea of shortening the NBA season by eliminating some games from the season.
McBasketball links tired legs to poor shooting, which will lower the points scored in the second half of back to backs. This, along with the best players not being on the court due to rest, are the main reasons for a team not reaching its season average in points scored, as well as not being able to defend as well to maintain its season average for points allowed.
Coach Nick adds: “Sleep is less stable, and there is a lot of scientific evidence that shows once athletes get out of a rhythm with rest, their reaction time worsens, injuries are more likely, etc.”
The numerous factors that physically hinder players are all brought about because of the back to backs taking place.
“From what I gather, the coaches hate them and do their best to mitigate - either by resting players completely the first game, or limiting minutes slightly," coach Nick said.
McBasketball poses a similar solution, suggesting that the league could lengthen the schedule. He also offers the idea of shortening the NBA season by eliminating some games from the season.
McBasketball links tired legs to poor shooting, which will lower the points scored in the second half of back to backs. This, along with the best players not being on the court due to rest, are the main reasons for a team not reaching its season average in points scored, as well as not being able to defend as well to maintain its season average for points allowed.
Coach Nick adds: “Sleep is less stable, and there is a lot of scientific evidence that shows once athletes get out of a rhythm with rest, their reaction time worsens, injuries are more likely, etc.”
The numerous factors that physically hinder players are all brought about because of the back to backs taking place.
“From what I gather, the coaches hate them and do their best to mitigate - either by resting players completely the first game, or limiting minutes slightly," coach Nick said.
the mile-high advantage:
denver's professional sports teams benefit from breathless opponents
By Kevin G. McGuire
The 2012 Denver Broncos home opener against Pittsburgh was a sight to behold. The Steelers, up 19-14 in the fourth quarter, were quickly decimated by Peyton Manning’s no-huddle drives. Denver scored 17 unanswered points in its 31-19 win.
Why, exactly, did Pittsburgh’s defense fail in the fourth quarter? Perhaps they were high. Not on any intoxicant, mind you, but high in the air: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver’s home stadium, sits as the name suggests: 5,280 feet above sea level, making it the highest-altitude stadium in the NFL. While the Broncos are used to playing in the thin air, visiting teams struggle with the altitude.
“I notice it more when coming back to Denver,” said Aaron Matas, a sports anchor and reporter at 9NEWS in Denver. “It always takes a couple of days to get your wind back.”
The human body best uses oxygen at sea level, where the oxygen concentration sits at 20.9 percent. At that level, the hemoglobin in your blood is fully saturated and fully carries the oxygen breathed in to your body tissues.
Denver effectively has 17 percent less oxygen concentration, which makes playing harder on both visiting teams and spectators alike. The Broncos -- and other local teams -- love to tout the altitude of their stadium.
“I also see it as an intimidation factor,” Matas said. “The University of Colorado has a mural on the wall at the Coors Events Center that welcomes visiting teams and makes a large display of the elevation they are about to play at.”
But exactly how much of a home-field advantage is there in Denver? An analysis of the city's four professional sports teams shows it's substantial.
Why, exactly, did Pittsburgh’s defense fail in the fourth quarter? Perhaps they were high. Not on any intoxicant, mind you, but high in the air: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver’s home stadium, sits as the name suggests: 5,280 feet above sea level, making it the highest-altitude stadium in the NFL. While the Broncos are used to playing in the thin air, visiting teams struggle with the altitude.
“I notice it more when coming back to Denver,” said Aaron Matas, a sports anchor and reporter at 9NEWS in Denver. “It always takes a couple of days to get your wind back.”
The human body best uses oxygen at sea level, where the oxygen concentration sits at 20.9 percent. At that level, the hemoglobin in your blood is fully saturated and fully carries the oxygen breathed in to your body tissues.
Denver effectively has 17 percent less oxygen concentration, which makes playing harder on both visiting teams and spectators alike. The Broncos -- and other local teams -- love to tout the altitude of their stadium.
“I also see it as an intimidation factor,” Matas said. “The University of Colorado has a mural on the wall at the Coors Events Center that welcomes visiting teams and makes a large display of the elevation they are about to play at.”
But exactly how much of a home-field advantage is there in Denver? An analysis of the city's four professional sports teams shows it's substantial.
the broncos: by the numbers
“The Nuggets were the first Denver sports team to use altitude to their advantage,” said Troy Renck, a sportscaster and Broncos insider at Denver’s ABC 7 station. “[Denver] is the most offensive tilted city there is.”
The Broncos scored an average of 35 points per game at home from 2012-2014. However, that number dropped to 22 points per game in 2015 and 2016. The past two years have also affected their winning percentage at home: Even though they have only lost six games over the past five years, three of those games were lost in 2016.
Renck said that has to do with now-retired quarterback Peyton Manning.
“As [Manning] aged, it was not kind to him,” Renck said. “He could no longer play effectively at the altitude.”
The Broncos scored an average of 35 points per game at home from 2012-2014. However, that number dropped to 22 points per game in 2015 and 2016. The past two years have also affected their winning percentage at home: Even though they have only lost six games over the past five years, three of those games were lost in 2016.
Renck said that has to do with now-retired quarterback Peyton Manning.
“As [Manning] aged, it was not kind to him,” Renck said. “He could no longer play effectively at the altitude.”
In the last two seasons of his career, Manning suffered injuries to his foot and his quad, and the up-tempo football that was the Broncos' hallmark suffered.
“They had to rely on their running game, which caused the drop in points,” Renck said.
While NFL players worry about being breathless in Denver, MLB players would jump at a chance to play at Coors Field in Denver. From 1995-2001, the home runs hit per game was 3.3, Renck said. It’s an outrageous number, and it's largely due to the altitude.
“They found at altitude, the baseballs would shrink and get harder,” Renck said. “They were essentially playing pinball baseball.”
In the years analyzed, the Rockies average roughly six runs per game, and only 1.5 home runs are hit per game at Coors Field.
Denver teams in the NHL and the NBA, Renck says, also have an advantage with altitude due to exposure and training in the thin air. However, mediocre Avalanche and Nuggets teams have lessened the potential altitude advantage. Over the years analyzed, the Avalanche continue to have one of the lower winning percentages at home and on the road, (below .500), and the average shots against the Avalanche over the games surveyed was slightly higher than their own shots on goal.
The Nuggets, too, have had some struggles. Their winning percentage over the games surveyed has also stayed below .500, and they only racked up seven wins over the twenty games surveyed at home.